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Justice Kennedy’s vote on the constitutionality of the individual mandate is bound to be a disappointment regardless of how he votes.

Two decades ago, it was widely expected that he would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade and return state abortion legislation to rational basis review. And he did vote that way . . . only to later switch and vote another way. If Justice Kennedy follows his Casey pattern, that means he will have voted at conference to hold the individual mandate unconstitutional, only to switch his vote some time during writing. That would be a disappointment to many.

But Justice Kennedy’s Casey vote did not work out quite as he anticipated, as his dissent in Stenberg v. Carhart and his opinion for the Court in in Gonzales v. Carhart bear out. Moreover, Justice Kennedy may still be nursing resentment over his Flipper reputation from October 1991 Term (which brought both Casey and Lee v. Weisman). Perhaps he learned from Casey that he should not flip his vote in cases of that magnitude. And if that was his takeaway from Casey for the individual mandate ruling, then he not only voted at conference to hold the individual mandate unconstitutional, but also did not switch to the other side during writing.

Yet Justice Kennedy’s contemplation of a 5-4 split down the lines of partisan appointments may have brought to mind Bush v. Gore . . . leading to no change at all. For Justice Kennedy simply cannot understand why anyone would question the Court’s leanings and rulings from that case alone. In his view, the Bush v. Gore majority was–obviously–only deciding based on its best understanding of the law. And even if Justice Kennedy had worries about public perception, the unpopularity of the individual mandate (which is much less popular now than Al Gore was then) provides some insulation for the Court.

For all these reasons, it will be most interesting to see if Justice Kennedy thinks that stare decisis means the same thing for Raich as it did for Roe.

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